On the eve of the first primary of the 2016 presidential election cycle, the Des Monies Register has released its most recent poll results. The poll of likely caucus-goers holds some interesting revelations as to who could emerge with momentum after Monday’s vote.
The most interesting numbers have to do with Marco Rubio whose campaign has been hampered by a split in the mainstream republican vote among several candidates.
The poll shows that Marco Rubio is the second choice among mainstream republican voters with 21% saying they support the Florida Senator. The leader among the mainstream is Donald Trump at 34%.
Thirty-eight percent of likely GOP caucus-goers identify themselves as primarily mainstream, rather than tea party or evangelical conservative, and Trump does better than any other candidate with 34 percent of their support. Rubio is next at 21 percent. Cruz gets only 10 percent of these voters. via De Moines Register
Interestingly Ted Cruz came in third among those who identified themselves as mainstream republicans at 10%.
Marco Rubio scored the second highest image rating in the poll at 70% just behind Dr. Ben Carson at 72%. That positive image has made Rubio the second choice among voters in nearly every category.
This sets the stage for Marco Rubio to have a surge in the Iowa caucus. If support waivers for the other candidates Rubio will benefit.
A last-minute change of heart could happen. Rubio, Cruz and Carson are among the only candidates with a positive favorability rating. Further he is one of only a handful of candidates whose supporters are enthusiastic about him becoming the nominee. On the down side less than half of Rubio’s supporters
If Rubio could skim a point or two from the other candidates it could be enough to give him a strong second place finish in Iowa with serious momentum going into the New Hampshire primary next week.
A second place finish by Rubio would likely spell the end for a couple of campaigns who are depending on the same group of voters to give them an impressive finish on Monday. Added incentive for Rubio to finish strong as he could pick up support in the primaries ahead from those candidates who drop out .